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Energy experts said gas prices would stay high. Why were they wrong?
The unexpected drop in gasoline prices has given Trump a political boost, even as energy analysts warn the fragile ceasefire and tightening oil supplies could quickly reverse the trend.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/30/trump-said-gas-prices-would-fall-after-the-war-defying-the-experts-so-far-hes-right-00980674

Prices are lower than predicted in part because China cut its oil imports, ships snuck through the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade and oil futures never fully priced in the level of risk, which most energy experts did not expect.

China slashed oil imports by at least 3 million barrels per day, according to Kpler, a commodities research firm. While it isn’t clear exactly why, some suspect it is a combination of a weaker economy and an increase in electric vehicles hitting at the same time as the war.

In addition to reduced Chinese demand, the energy futures market and the cost of actual real-world barrels of oil wildly diverged for much of the war, keeping prices at the pump lower than most thought possible. The market continued to focus on Trump’s claims of a quick resolution to the war and his pledge to quickly drop prices while the price of crude oil in some regions spiked upward as the actual barrels available for sale became scarce.

Instead of spiraling upward, the average price at the pump has plummeted 70 cents per gallon in a month from a peak of $4.56. A little over a week since the memorandum of understanding was signed between the countries, a barrel of oil costs just a little more than it did before the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran in late February.

It wasn’t supposed to work this way, according to energy experts whose predictions of $150 barrel of oil, $5 gasoline and summer recessions were widely quoted in the media.

For now, they’ve been proven wrong for a litany of reasons, including a surprisingly weak Chinese economy and a failure to imagine how handily the president could bully the markets into submission.